Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is expected to affect 11.7% to 16.5% of the general population across 8 countries by 2032, and the global prevalence of advanced-stage disease may rise up to 59.3%, investigators reported at the World Congress of Nephrology in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

These 10-year forecasts are from IMPACT-CKD, an international study that models CKD trends for the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia.

“Despite alarming increases in CKD burden, global recognition is lacking as a health priority,” according to Naveen Rao, MA, MBA, of AstraZeneca in Cambridge, UK, and colleagues. “There are substantial increases projected in clinical, economic, societal, and environmental burdens associated with CKD.”

From 2022 to 2032, the model projects that the proportion of patients requiring dialysis will increase 75%. CKD-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations will rise by 17% to 58%. The carbon footprint from renal replacement therapy is anticipated to increase from approximately 14 to 25 billion kg CO₂ equivalents, which is comparable to driving 17.3 million cars annually.

The United States has the highest projected increase in CKD prevalence at 16.5%. Stage 3-5 CKD is expected to rise 15.5% to approximately 125 million in this country by 2032. Dialysis prevalence and related costs are both expected to rise 77.6%. Emergency visits and hospitalization are anticipated to increase 30.5% and 26.0%, respectively. The societal burden in the US from missed work days and lost tax revenue (for both patients and caregivers) is expected to reach $17.7 billion by 2032. Among the 8 countries, the US ranks among the highest for forecasted water consumption, fossil fuel depletion, and carbon emissions.

“These findings emphasize an urgent need for tailored and sustainable interventions for earlier detection and earlier management of CKD,” according to the investigators.

Disclosure: This research was supported by AstraZeneca. Please see the original reference for a full list of disclosures.